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It’s official. Tapering, the gradual rolling back of the Fed’s bond-buying program, is set to begin in mid-November or mid-December, and be completed by the mid of the following year.

That’s according to the FOMC minutes released on Wednesday.

How will that affect U.S. Treasury bond yields, and the U.S. economy? There are two plausible scenarios. (See Insiders’ Hot Stocks on TipRanks)

Scenario 1

The first scenario is that tapering will reduce the demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, and push yields higher. Thus, it will further signal the end of accommodative policy.

Since 2020, the Federal Reserve has been buying $80 billion of U.S. Treasury securities and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) monthly. The Fed plans to gradually reduce these purchases every month, and eventually eliminate them by the mid of next year.

Unless the U.S. Treasury Department cuts down the issuing of new bonds at the same pace, or a big buyer (e.g., China) steps in and buys U.S. Treasury bonds, bond yields will rise.

While opposite, the two scenarios aren’t mutually exclusive. The Federal Reserve has prepared financial markets well for tapering this time around.

It began a series of pre-announcements six months ago, now has an official timetable for doing it. That gave the markets plenty of time to discount the first scenario, and push Treasury bond yields higher in anticipation of lower Fed demand for Treasury securities.

Now, they are getting ready for the second scenario, the taming of inflationary expectations.

Thus, the decline in bond yields following the September FOMC minutes on Wednesday spells out the Fed’s tapering plan.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article represents the views and opinion of the writer only, and not the views or opinion of TipRanks or its affiliates, and should be considered for informational purposes only. TipRanks makes no warranties about the completeness, accuracy or reliability of such information. Nothing in this article should be taken as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell securities. Nothing in the article constitutes legal, professional, investment and/or financial advice and/or takes into account the specific needs and/or requirements of an individual, nor does any information in the article constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters or subject discussed therein. TipRanks and its affiliates disclaim all liability or responsibility with respect to the content of the article, and any action taken upon the information in the article is at your own and sole risk. The link to this article does not constitute an endorsement or recommendation by TipRanks or its affiliates. Past performance is not indicative of future results, prices or performance.

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